Private log - twelfth night of the second moon
Martell and Tyrell talk so sweetly to one another, one could almost forget that they must inevitably come to blows. The only question that remains is: which house will bare its neck first at the wrong time?
Stark and Greyjoy are arrayed against one another. A bloody dance to follow? There are other options, particularly for Stark. Of course Tyrell and Martell voice these options loudly and at length, giving all manner of honey-coated, self-serving ‘advise’ to their safely distant ‘friends’. Pah! Stark is keeping its own council it seems, while letting others reveal their intent through their suggestions. Wise indeed for Stark.
Baratheon finds itself abutting three, potentially four neighbours. A situation I can certainly sympathise with. I feel that Martell is their true threat, since they lack any alternative avenue, presuming their play against Tyrell waits further down the way.
Direct conflict now seems unavoidable. But who will strike whom first? Possibilities multiply…
Of course, I should welcome the wolf south in my own interests, and you would benefit naught? Your advice falls on deaf ears. It is plain to see that you seek to plunge Westeros into conflict for your own interests. Well, if it is war you seek then you should do so boldly. Quit Dorne and press your claim with honour in battle.
You talk much on games. I would talk on realities.
You and your so-called Martell allies transparently warmonger (to the realm’s detriment, but not to yours).
Yes, Greyjoy sits at my door. No, we do not speak of trust, which is for fools. Instead we talk of understandings. We understand that direct conflict favours all but us. We understand that those in the middle will be squeezed from without. So we must be prepared to withstand and, if needs be, to push back.
You impugn the honour of our house, but gods and men know your words for lies and so they carry no weight.
Let us talk on matters of substance. Your position, while tenable, is precarious. Clearly, Martell is waiting to plunge into you lands, as he supposedly has no other option. This may be supported by Tyrell once his lands are secured. To the north, the Starks have great potential. How they act next will affect much, but suffice to say that your claim on the Vale of Arryn is contested. And then you have us Lannisters sitting in the riverlands to your west. I will not seek alliances where none can be had, but I will say that I aim to check unbalanced power. I believe that the shape of things to come is off a steady press inwards from those on the edges of our realm.
But I may be wrong. In the mean time I shall watch carefully.